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Researcher from UNAM predicts coronavirus outbreak in Mexico between March 20 – 30

The growing cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections are causing fear globally, so several countries have implemented some measures to prevent the virus from spreading further; However, compared to other entities, Mexico remains in a very low range of people carrying the infection, possibly due to a lack of testing, although this situation could change in the coming days.

This was explained by Dr. Gustavo Cruz , a member of the Institute of Research in Applied Mathematics and Systems (IIMAS) of the Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), who revealed that the spread is inevitable so it is only a matter of time for the largest infectious outbreak to affect Mexico.

The doctor has developed a mathematical model in which he has shown that the estimates of the said outbreak would begin between March 20 and 30, 2020, data that will help take strict measures to prevent a greater number of infections.

“The basis for this work is a classic 1927 model devised by Scottish physicians WO Kermack and AG McKendrick, which employs a system of differential equations to detail how an infectious outbreak arises, how it grows, when it reaches its maximum and how it then declines, all from two parameters: one biological and the other social. In this case, we have complemented these differential equations with classical diffusion to form what is known as a reaction-diffusion system”, revealed the researcher.

The concept denominated as ” basic reproductive number” or R0, reveals the data on how many people could become infected with a disease, which is calculated by means of equations that are formed based on the number of patients and the probability of infecting other people.

This is not the first time that Gustavo Cruz studied infectious outbreaks, in 2009 he collaborated in the development of the model when the crisis of influences type A (H1N1) hit the country, which was able to determine the progress and speed of contagions.

In addition, the date in which a greater number of cases would be recorded and the effectiveness of the measures applied at that time were estimated, this experience has led him to work on the model that anticipates the behavior of the coronavirus.

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